Gold Gains Suggest $644K Bitcoin by 2028 Halving, VanEck Analysis Shows
VanEck analysis via CoinTelegraph: gold's recent gains imply a $644K Bitcoin 'equivalent value' by the 2028 halving — what investors should know. Read more.
A new VanEck-backed analysis, reported by Jesse Coghlan at Cointelegraph, links recent gold gains to a striking implied Bitcoin price: $644,000 in “equivalent value.” According to the note, if Bitcoin reaches roughly half the market value of gold by the next halving slated for 2028, that figure becomes a theoretical target for Bitcoin price appreciation.
The thesis centers on the growing narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold. Historically, gold has been a go-to store of value; VanEck’s model compares the two assets’ relative market capitalization and scarcity to estimate an “equivalent value” for Bitcoin. With gold’s recent price rise, the analysis recalibrates Bitcoin’s potential upside should it capture a meaningful share of gold’s market role.
For crypto investors, the $644K number is headline-grabbing but should be interpreted with caution. It’s a forward-looking, model-driven estimate rather than a prediction. Macro forces — inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, and geopolitical risk — influence both gold and Bitcoin prices. The 2028 halving, which will reduce Bitcoin’s issuance rate, is another structural factor that historically has correlated with bullish sentiment for Bitcoin price.
What this analysis highlights is not a guaranteed price path but the interplay between narrative, scarcity, and market demand. As Bitcoin matures, its correlation with traditional safe-haven assets like gold may strengthen or weaken depending on regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and broader market cycles. VanEck’s approach offers one lens: if Bitcoin increasingly serves as a digital store of value, its market cap could expand relative to gold’s.
Practical takeaways for investors: treat the VanEck estimate as a scenario rather than a forecast; maintain portfolio diversification; and keep an eye on catalysts such as institutional flows, ETF approvals, macroeconomic shifts, and the 2028 halving itself. For those tracking long-term Bitcoin price targets, the gold-comparison method is a useful framework — but combine it with risk management and research.
Ultimately, the $644K “equivalent value” headline underscores growing interest in Bitcoin’s role alongside gold. Whether that scenario materializes will depend on market behavior, adoption, and the unpredictable macro backdrop between now and 2028.